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Abstract Proxy‐based reconstructions of Neogene warm climates are a valuable data source for helping to understand what a future, warmer world may look like. Such insights are especially critical in the Arctic where the fastest rates of warming are underway and likely to continue. In this study, hydrogen isotopes of lignin‐methoxy groups (δ²H_LM) from Miocene and Pliocene sub‐fossil wood samples (N = 43) at six high‐latitude sites (73–80°N) in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago were used to estimate mean δ²H values of precipitation and temperature anomalies (ΔT) relative to present. The ΔT estimates ranged from +9.7 to +16.7°C depending on site and epoch and are corroborated by a suite of independent proxy data for most sites, and for one site (Prince Patrick Island) this study provides the first quantitative ΔT estimates. These are conservative estimates as they do not account for the more negative δ²H_seawatervalues during the Neogene. These ΔT estimates, along with independent proxy and vegetation data, depict a dramatically warmer version of the Arctic. Some of this warming was likely driven by global atmospheric change and feedbacks that are possible in the modern‐day Arctic. However, transformation of the once‐contiguous Arctic landmass into a dissected archipelago has undoubtedly changed the nature and future warming potential of the Canadian Arctic region. Investigations aimed at disentangling the relative contribution of global versus regional boundary conditions to Neogene Arctic climate warming are needed to understand the extent to which these reconstructions may foreshadow conditions in the future. 

Abstract Climate warming in recent decades has negatively impacted forest health in the western United States. Here, we report on potential early warning signals (EWS) for drought‐related mortality derived from measurements of tree‐ring growth (ring width index; RWI) and carbon isotope discrimination (∆¹³C), primarily focused on ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa). Sampling was conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada Mountains, near the epicenter of drought severity and mortality associated with the 2012–2015 California drought and concurrent outbreak of western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis). At this site, we found that widespread mortality was presaged by five decades of increasing sensitivity (i.e., increased explained variation) of both tree growth and ∆¹³C to Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). We hypothesized that increasing sensitivity of tree growth and ∆¹³C to hydroclimate constitute EWS that indicate an increased likelihood of widespread forest mortality caused by direct and indirect effects of drought. We then tested these EWS in additional ponderosa pine‐dominated forests that experienced varying mortality rates associated with the same California drought event. In general, drier sites showed increasing sensitivity of RWI to PDSI over the last century, as well as higher mortality following the California drought event compared to wetter sites. Two sites displayed evidence that thinning or fire events that reduced stand basal area effectively reversed the trend of increasing hydroclimate sensitivity. These comparisons indicate that reducing competition for soil water and/or decreasing bark beetle host tree density via forest management—particularly in drier regions—may buffer these forests against drought stress and associated mortality risk. EWS such as these could provide land managers more time to mitigate the extent or severity of forest mortality in advance of droughts. Substantial efforts at deploying additional dendrochronological research in concert with remote sensing and forest modeling will aid in forecasting of forest responses to continued climate warming.